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Posts Tagged ‘NoCo Energy Summit’

Vortex Tools discusses the Northern Colorado Energy Summit (#2015EnergySummit) and an energy future based on low oil and gas prices.

Last week I spoke at the Northern Colorado Energy Summit in Loveland, Colorado (#2015EnergySummit). That’s me—second from the right—missing the suit jacket memo:

EnergySummitPic

As the Summit was titled “Drilling Down: The Economic Impact of Declining Energy Prices,” Vortex Tools was invited to speak on our applications recovering more oil condensates and reducing operational costs. We’ll be speaking on similar topics at the Rocky Mountain Energy Summit conference: August 24th-27th, 2015.

As with any trade show, the NoCo Energy Summit had booths loaded with swag (“I don’t know what this is, but I’m taking it anyway”), free meals and coffee, a fat stack of business cards exchanged, and, if you weren’t farting around on your smartphone the whole time, some great info to be gleaned from the panels. Of note:

Oil Prices Will Remain Low

I know, you get 10 speculators on stage and you’ll get 10 different opinions as to why oil and gas prices are low and if/when they’ll come back, but when you average them all out, very few think oil prices will get much above $60/barrel by year’s end. You can blame strict air quality regulations; you can blame the recent Iran deal; you can blame the downturn in the Chinese stock market (like I said, multiple speculators equals multiple opinions), but even with the small ups and downs this year, oil prices remain low overall.

Dan Kearney is the Senior Business Development Analyst with Noble Energy. When asked about whether the worst is over with low oil prices, he said, “I think we’re in between storms, and that we’ll continue to be between storms.” A recent uptick in oil prices led to producers flooding the market—hoping to grab part of that value increase along with everyone else—and this saturated the market, dropping oil prices back down again.

Another Low is Coming in 2015

Sarp Ozkan is an oil and gas Market Analyst for Ponderosa Energy. When asked the same question as above, he said that the next oil price drop will come in October or November this year. That seemed more specific than the rest, but he had good reason: That’s refinery maintenance season (and they’re currently running at 90%+ of capacity—leading to problems when they’re shut down).

$100+/Barrel Oil Wasn’t Very Realistic (Or Likely to Return Soon)

So things aren’t looking too great for 2015 oil prices and, as noted during the Summit, no OPEC country is balancing its budget at $50 oil. While some lament that $100/barrel oil is far, far away (if ever again), Ozkan ran the numbers as to where the oil and gas market can do well with lower prices. After factoring in lower commodity prices, increased regulations, and reducing operational costs to keep up, the price-per-barrel point to see good margins was $65/barrel. $60/barrel was about breakeven; below that was a loss; but $65/barrel is the marker where the industry profitability opens back up. At least that’s one analyst’s view.

The Global Middle Class is Growing and Needs Energy

Tisha Schuller was the President/CEO of the Colorado Oil and Gas Association (COGA) for five years and now serves as Project Director for Stanford University’s Natural Gas Initiative. Schuller began her career as an environmentalist, but became an oil and gas advocate for two main reasons:

  1. When comparing the total impact (energy output versus environmental imprint) of oil and gas versus alternative energy options, the numbers were heavily in favor of oil and gas; and
  2. She realized that giving access to this abundant energy resource is one of the best things you do for impoverished communities. Otherwise you are limited by daylight and what your body can do. Even in Colorado, abundant and affordable energy is valuable. For those living below the poverty line, 25% of their income is spent on energy. Schuller also noted that pesky detail that everything you’re standing on, sitting on, leaning on, texting on comes from petroleum.

As the breakfast keynote speaker, Schuller noted some reasons to be positive despite the down energy market:

  • Although it feels like the middle class in the U.S. is getting smaller, the global middle class is growing—mostly in Asia. According to Reuter’s, it will more than double in size by 2030.
  • With this growth will come great demand for energy, and 84% of it will be from oil and gas. It is currently estimated the need will be above the supply. When it comes to basic economics, you know what that does to prices.
  • Many believe that this will enable the U.S. to export oil. As someone later stated, “If Iran can, the U.S. should be able to also.” Analysts believe that the U.S. leaves $5.50/barrel of profit on the table by not exporting oil.
  • Operational costs continue to come down (hello, Vortex tools) as do emissions. Currently, CO2 emissions in the U.S. are down to 1992 levels. The U.S. is the only country to achieve this as a free market.

So the oil and gas market has reasons to be hopeful; just most of them aren’t showing up in 2015…

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Colin McKay Miller is the VP of Marketing for the SpiroFlo Holdings group of companies:

SpiroFlo for residential hot water savings (delivered 35% faster with up to a 5% volume savings on every hot water outlet in the home), industrial water purification (biofilm removal), and reduced water pumping costs.

Vortex Tools for extending the life of oil and gas wells (recovering up to 10 times more NGLs, reducing flowback startup times, replacing VRUs, eliminating paraffin and freezing in winter, etc.).

Ecotech for cost-effective non-thermal drying (for coal, biosolids, sugar beets, dairy waste, etc.) and safe movement of materials (including potash and soda ash).

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